How do investment banks view the record election year 2024?

VEDAT ÖZDAN

In 2023, we witnessed the highest inflation and tightening of monetary policy in the last 40 years.

Although easing slightly compared to 2023, 2024 will be a year in which financial conditions remain tight, global growth slows, and national politics and global geopolitics continue to decline.

According to The Center for American Progress, more than 2 billion voters in 50 countries will go to the polls in 2024. The total population of these countries is approximately 4.2 billion. These countries, which make up more than half of the world’s population, produce more than 50 percent of the world’s economy.

Dissatisfaction with political systems is growing worldwide. Confidence in state institutions, which have difficulty solving economic and political problems, has decreased. II. International institutions lose credibility after World War II. Their existence has become debatable. In the West, immigrants are no longer considered a humanitarian problem, but an existential threat. The far right and far left began to attract more attention from the center. Political polarization is increasing. Populism is gaining strength. People’s tolerance has decreased. This is the biggest threat to democracy. Keeping the peace is getting harder and harder. We are entering a period in which it will be difficult to establish stable and long-term governments. The current environment will affect both the ballot box and the results of the ballot box will affect this environment.

Cyber ​​and digital threats cannot be ignored. Social media platforms have become the primary source of information. Voters are more vulnerable than ever to manipulation through misinformation. AI content can be very effective. Reliable information is essential for democracy and a market economy. Accurate and complete information is a must for informed voters and informed consumers. ‘Deepfake’ sounds and images are hostile to reliable, complete and accurate information. Democracies derive their power from the legitimacy of elections. Without justice, there will be no peace, no stability, no environment of trust.

BRICS (China) and West (USA) rivalry, Russo-Ukraine war, Israeli atrocity in Gaza, global warming (2023 will be warmer on average than ever before in history, record may be broken again in mid-2024 due to El-Nino), a multi-year low in China’s growth transition, increasing “hostile” tendencies in international economic relations, lawlessness, globalization and supply chain reengineering, geographic winners and losers in terms of developing countries, increasing geopolitical fragmentation, a changing global macroeconomic regime, uncertainty, high volatility, which often accompanies it, “rising risk premiums”…

According to the World Economic Forum’s latest “Chief Economists Outlook,” if we had to sum up 2024 in one word, that word would be “volatility.” According to the report, geopolitics will once again be one of the biggest sources of this volatility.

Our question is: Can we read this whole turbulent process solely from the perspective of overly dovish Fed prices?

Which choice is critical and why?

We can summarize as succinctly as possible why the elections that will come to the fore on the world political stage in 2024 are critical:

Taiwan election (January 13): South China Sea, straits, US-China tensions, chip supplies…

Russian election (March 15–17): Ukraine war, food, energy, armaments and nuclear threat…

European Parliament elections (June 6-9): EU budget, green transition, difficulties in decision-making processes, divergence in foreign policy, EU enlargement, immigration policy, political polarization, aid to Ukraine and Gaza… How will European public opinion develop? Will a new, inclusive and visionary leadership emerge?

UK election (17th December at the latest): Atlantic Pact, relations with the EU, support for Ukraine…

Indian Elections (April–May): Is a new source of production and demand emerging to replace China? Food exports, food prices…

US Election (November 5): Could there be a candidate other than Biden and Trump? What happens when Biden goes and Trump comes in? Globalization, supply chain, international institutions, China, BRICS, relations with Russia, war in Ukraine, OPEC, NATO, EU, relations with the United Kingdom, Middle East, Israel…

In addition to these, elections are being held in Belgium, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico and many others that may have critical consequences.

ExchangeElections mean uncertainty for them. Volatility increases as we move towards the unknown. If the results are accepted and accepted after the election without questioning the legitimacy, uncertainty will be reduced. In the following year, stock markets generally rise.

How do investment banks see 2024?

While all these choices are expected to set the stage for the above critical developments, what are the market participants’ scenarios?

Macro Goldman Sachs

The global economy in 2023 exceeded our optimistic expectations. Global economic growth will rise 1 percentage point above our consensus forecast last year. Major central banks are likely to have finished raising interest rates. In 2024, we expect a further decrease in inflation. The risk of recession is limited. If growth slows, central banks have high margins and a willingness to cut insurance rates. Interest rate cuts are unlikely to happen until the second half of 2024. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will relinquish control over the yield curve in the spring. China’s slowdown continues. The US dollar may remain strong.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management

Technological innovation and artificial intelligence will again be important. In 2020, there was $18 trillion in negative yielding bonds. Now it’s almost zero. The yield on good corporate bonds is between 4-6 percent and is twice the average between 1999 and 2019. The average yield on private sector bonds rated investable and above by Fitch and S&P is around 8 percent. The perception that there has been no alternative to stocks for decades (TINA) is being replaced by the view that there are reasonable alternatives (TARA ). Investment-grade government bonds and investment-grade corporate bonds have become alternatives to equities in both the US and Europe.

Black stone

As I cited above, the reworking of globalization, increasing geopolitical fragmentation, and reworking of the supply chain will be closely watched. Artificial intelligence will go from concept to commercialization. The application of enterprise artificial intelligence will accelerate. Accelerated calculations and new technologies will enter the scene. Pay special attention to innovations in medicine. AI-powered healthcare to reach $9 billion by 2022. In 2031, this market will increase to 188 billion dollars.

UBS

Looking ahead to 2024, we see 3 question marks:

  • How should investors adjust their portfolios in a slowing growth environment?
  • What is the outlook for the technology sector performing very well in 2023? How should an investor be positioned?
  • What do movements in the bond market mean for stocks?

Emphasis should be placed on cyclical companies that are well positioned and have strong balance sheets and cash flows. IT companies, smartphones, PC tablets and artificial intelligence companies look interesting. Falling bond yields could boost stocks.

JPMorgan

There will be a soft landing in the US. Strong growth continues as it cools. We have seen a significant drop in inflation. But there are still risks. The Fed’s rate hikes appear to be over. Don’t stop at cash. We like US Treasuries. There may be opportunities in commercial real estate.

BNP Paribas

Low growth compared to 2023. In the US, the savings from the pandemic period will soon be spent. Business investment will decrease. China will deal with the real estate crisis. Europe is more vulnerable to recession and faces the risk of stagflation. Tight financial conditions will suppress economic growth and corporate profits. Governments will focus on debt reduction. Fiscal support will be reversed. Market expectations of growth under The key risk is that it stays.

barclays

The geopolitical background is becoming increasingly worrying. Headwinds will continue to blow in the economies. Investors should be mindful of the uncertainty and volatility that often accompanies it. 2024 is harder to predict than 2023. We continue to believe that the recession argument is incorrect. We expect a year of low growth flirting with contraction and gradual easing of inflationary pressures.

Nordea

Despite the highest interest rate in the Western world in the past 15 years, there has been no hard landing. Uncertainties continue. Industries in most countries are suffering. Geopolitical tensions have not subsided. Europe is on the brink of recession. A soft landing is still possible, but less so than in the US.

The last word

BISTWhen evaluating the returns and expectations of returns of Eurobonds, private sector bonds and government bonds, we should not forget the alternatives written under the opinion of “Goldman Sachs Asset Management”.

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