Apartment sales fell by 20 percent. So what is the reason for the sharp decline in housing sales? Especially in recent months, housing prices have stopped, and rents have even dropped by 10-15 percent. How does the decline in home sales affect prices? Will the rent decline continue?
Real estate expert Mustafa Hakan Özelmacıklı answers questions related to this topic. milliyet.com.trHe explained it. Özelmacıklı used the following statement in his speech:
“The house sales indices were published by TURKSTAT. In November, apartment sales fell by 20.6 percent compared to the same month last year. Sales were 93 thousand 514 in residences.
In fact, if we look at it numerically, 93 thousand homes were sold in October. In this regard, we focus most on the period from January to November. Here is a decrease of 14.9 percent. We see that 1 million 87 thousand houses were sold.
‘INCREASED INTEREST IN LAND AND LAND’
Looking at it from that perspective, we estimate that home sales may end the year at 1.2 million with next month’s data. For all real estate sales, 2023 showed us a period when land and lot sales were more intense than housing sales.
WHAT IS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE DECLINE IN SALES?
It can be said that the main reason for the decline in housing sales is the restriction of bank loans. The sale of mortgaged houses in Turkey decreased by 68.5 percent in November compared to the same month of the previous year and reached 5 thousand 245.
“SINK DROPPED AS INTEREST RATE RAISE”
Here, the share of total housing sales in mortgage sales was 5.6 percent. In the period from January to November, compared to the same month of the previous year, it decreased by 33.6 percent. We can assume that the most intense part of mortgage selling is the increase in interest rates on home loans and the decrease in demand after this increase.
“DEPOSIT INTEREST WAS A SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE”
The high rise in interest rates on deposits has also slowed down the process for people looking to invest in real estate. Interest rates have created a significant advantage for people who want to invest their money through deposits. This narrowed real estate investment during this period.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO HOUSING PRICES IN THE NEW YEAR?
Looking at the housing price index, real increases remained at 17.8 percent in September. Real estate prices have been stagnating in the last 2-3 months. But we are seeing the cost of new construction rising due to rising construction costs and labor costs. So although prices have stabilized to some extent over this period and appear to stabilize further, the cost of new construction is rising. This situation will push prices upwards, especially starting in the first quarter of 2024.
One factor that increased demand was sales to foreigners. The confusion between the terms foreign investor and refugee in our country led to the departure of foreigners from our country after the elections. In particular, we see that sales to foreigners fell by 46.1 percent. It can be said that this is a separate factor affecting home sales on the real estate side.
‘HOUSE LOAN VOLUME DECREASED’
We have started to see significant declines in the volume of BRSA home loans that are reported every week. It can be said that the volume of housing loans, which was 446 billion TL in the week of September 15, continued to decline and fell to 439 billion TL in the week of December 8.
‘THEY AIMED AT COUNTRIES AND COUNTRIES’
When we look at the sale of non-residential real estate, there was more intense interest in land and parcels. Although there are such declines in apartment sales, land sales have not decreased at this rate compared to the same period last year.
If we look at the total real estate sales, we can see that sales in the January-November period approached the threshold of 2 million 650 thousand. In this context, we can say that we expect the end of the year at the level of 2.8 million total property sales.
“UP TO 15 PERCENT REDUCTION IN RENT”
We cannot talk about a decline in apartment sales, but prices have been stagnant for the last 2-3 months. There is some decrease in rental prices. It varies between 10-15 percent depending on the region. A decrease in housing prices can be expected in provinces such as Antalya, Mersin and Adana. “The increase in construction costs will prevent this decline from becoming more intense.”
milliyet.com.tr